FSP NFL Pick: Chiefs +5.5 vs. Buccaneers — August 22, 2026 — NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs +5.5 (-110) (spread)
Why FSP Likes Kansas City +5.5
This is a price-and-depth play in a low-total preseason game. Kansas City has one of the stronger reserve quarterback rotations on the board: Justin Fields is scheduled to start and play roughly a quarter and a half, Garrett Nussmeier is expected to handle the next quarter and a half, and Chris Oladokun is slated for the fourth. Patrick Mahomes will not play.
The market has made a dramatic adjustment from Kansas City -1.5 at the opener to Tampa Bay -5.5. At the current number, FSP prefers taking the points rather than paying the inflated Tampa Bay price. Kansas City also has several young defensive players competing well in camp, while the Chiefs’ reserve offensive-line concerns keep this at 3★ rather than a stronger rating.
Market Check
The release is specifically Kansas City +5.5. FSP wants +5.5 at -110 or better. If the market drops to +4.5, the value is materially weaker and this should not be treated as the same wager.
Bet wisely. Preseason lines can move quickly.